Financial market forecasts are the private opinion of their authors. The current analysis does not constitute a trading guide. ForkLog does not assume any responsibility for the results that may arise from the use of the trading advice provided in the reviews.

The current market situation is described by trader Ilya Meshcheryakov.

Yesterday was not the most successful day for the first crypt currency – from its global highs the price fell by almost $1000. This is not just the biggest daily decline in recent months, but in principle the deepest fall in the trend that began on October 8 when the global triangle broke through.

Today’s bitcoin and the entire market also started with a decline, even temporarily succumbing to the psychological mark of $13,000. The cryptovoltaic market is under strong pressure from changes in investor behaviour – the March „flash backs“ caused active sales not only on stock exchanges, but also on the oil market, where for the second day in a row there were 5% negative.

 

October’s upward trend (beginning marked by a green arrow) with a red correction yesterday. BTC/USDT hour chart from TradingView.

This is the thought I am trying to convey the last few reviews: no matter how strong BTC is here and now, it still has to „look back at the explosions“ behind it. Bitcoin is not a Hollywood actor, but a real market asset, subject to the laws of supply and demand.

From a statistical point of view, BTC rarely returns to a medium-term upward trend after a significant drop, it is more inclined to move in an accumulation-pulse format. However, buyers are still active around $13,000, and one should not forget the strong support area of $12,700-$12,800, which made it possible to take a maximum of this year.

Technically everything, as well as last time, will dare near marks $12 800 – its breakdown means not only operation of stop orders and liquidations of buyers, but also activation of sellers. At the same time, even in the case of a sharply negative scenario, BTCs may be held in the price channel before declining, as previously quite large positions were gained.

 

The local support zone (highlighted in blue) with high buyer activity. BTC/USDT hour chart from TradingView.

Altcoins feel bad, there is a strong impression that capital for new price peaks is no longer available, BTC domination is firmly above 62% and continues to rise. They are often noticed during periods of flute or a slight decrease in bitcoin, so that a slight increase can still be seen.

So what do we have in the dry residue? Structural problems are growing, and investor behaviour is not changing in favour of risk assets, but the markets (stock indices, oil) that are adjacent to Bitcoin during crisis periods have accelerated the fall. Technically important markers are still stable, but this can change at any time, so short-term trading with risk limits remains a priority strategy.

Subscribe to ForkLog news in Telegram: ForkLog Feed is the whole news feed, ForkLog is the most important news and surveys.